ICBA EconoBot | Rate Relief Is Dead, and the Next Move Might Be Up

TOP STORY

Rate Relief Is Dead. The Next Move Might Be Up.

The Bank of Canada announces at 9:45 a.m. Eastern tomorrow, and every one of the 35 economists in the latest Reuters poll says the same thing: hold at 2.25%, and keep holding into late 2027. The data give Macklem no reason to move — Q2 GDP came in at 3.3% annualized, employment added 75,000 jobs in July, and headline inflation sits at 3.0%, the top of the target band. National Bank and Scotiabank have both broken from the pack and now forecast hikes — 2.50% in October, 2.75% by December. Any pro forma still penciled on cheaper money next year needs a rewrite this week. And the cost side gets worse first: Ottawa’s counter-tariffs on American steel, appliances and building materials land September 8. Washington started this fight; our own government is about to send the invoice to job sites in Surrey and Sherwood Park.

THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA

Quarterly Capital Spending: Oil and Gas, Q2 2026 — Released today. Capital expenditures in oil and gas extraction hit $11.0 billion, up 7.2% from Q1. Alberta’s producers are still writing cheques while the rest of the country debates whether to let them. Statistics Canada

Canadian Survey on Business Conditions, Q3 2026 — Released yesterday. Construction firms are the second-most likely of any sector to name inflation as their biggest coming obstacle, at 51.8%. Nearly one in three businesses expect U.S. tariffs to hurt them over the next year, and 27.4% have already passed tariff costs to customers. Note the fine print — this is the survey’s final edition. Statistics Canada

FROM THE ECONOMISTS

RBC Economics — Mid-Year Outlook for Canada’s Housing Market — Published today. Resales have climbed since April and prices are steadying, but RBC says the long correction in B.C. and Ontario “left a deep mark on sentiment that will take time to heal,” and the turn came too late to stop Canada-wide declines in 2026.

Scotiabank Economics — Daily Points, September 1 — Derek Holt has Brent and WTI both pushing US$90 after reports of missile strikes on two supertankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Good for Alberta netbacks; bad for every diesel tank, asphalt order and freight bill in the country.

WORTH WATCHING

September 8 — Counter-Tariffs Hit — Canada matches the U.S. dollar for dollar with 15, 25 and 50% duties on $27.6 billion of American goods, concentrated in steel, building materials and appliances. Price your material orders now, not next week.

WorkSafeBC’s Power Grab — The regulator wants to create a “psychosocial hazard” covering the design and management of work itself — crew size, schedule, workload, deadlines. It gave employers eight weeks in the middle of construction season to notice. ICBA has filed.

IN BRIEF

ICBA — WorkSafeBC Wants to Regulate How You Run Your Company Psychological-injury claims are up 48% since 2021 under the rules we already have, claims costs are at $3.6 billion, and Jock Finlayson expects premium increases as early as 2028.

ICBA Economics — Natural Resources Canada counts 504 major resource projects worth $633 billion. ICBA Economics added roughly another $100 billion announced since. Three-quarters of a trillion dollars on the books — and a country that still cannot get a shovel in the ground.

COFFEE & CONSTRUCTION

Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, ICBA’s Jordan Bateman serves up a 10-minute rundown of the news facing B.C. and Alberta construction on the Coffee & Construction podcast. Catch the latest episode: C&C #26: Mind the Investment Gap. Subscribe free on YouTube (@ICBATV), ICBA’s socials, or wherever you download podcasts.