ICBA EconoBot | Tariff Round Three: Cement Gets a Pass, Metal Products Get Hit
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Tariff Round Three: Cement Gets a Pass, Metal Products Get Hit
Canada’s $27.6-billion counter-tariffs landed Tuesday and Washington answered within hours: outright bans on Canadian alcohol, whey and motorcycles from September 29, new 50% duties on 110 more products including metal products and furniture from September 15, and roughly 10 items pulled off last month’s list — among them Portland cement and electrical switchgear, which U.S. builders lobbied hard to free. Trump also ordered the GSA to strip Canadian products from federal purchasing schedules worth US$50 billion a year. TD Economics calls the growth hit immaterial and rates B.C. neutral on this round; the Globe and Mail notes total tariffed trade barely moved, from US$20.15 billion to US$20.26 billion. Fine — but that is 16-plus tariff changes in 21 months. Contractors pricing steel and fabricated metal for 2027 bids are guessing at a tax rate that changes every six weeks, and Canada’s own 50% counter-tariff on U.S. steel and aluminum is the part that hits job sites here. Global News: Ottawa is “assessing”; Premier Smith warned against further escalation.
THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA
Quarterly Rent Statistics, Q2 2026 — Two-bedroom asking rent fell 3.6% year over year to $2,130 nationally. Calgary (-6.4%), Abbotsford–Mission (-6.4%) and Vancouver (-4.1%) led the declines. Vancouver still tops the country at $3,030; Calgary and Edmonton are the rare markets where asking rent is at or below what sitting tenants pay — supply caught up. Falling rents while purpose-built starts slow is a warning, not a victory lap. Statistics Canada
International Investment Position, Q2 2026 — Released today. Net foreign assets jumped a record $619 billion to $1.95 trillion, nearly all from foreign stocks rallying while the TSX lagged. Buried in the release: foreigners now hold 44.6% of federal bonds, up from 27% in 2021, and gross external debt hit 146.9% of GDP. Ottawa’s borrowing is increasingly financed abroad — at rates set abroad. Statistics Canada
FROM THE ECONOMISTS
TD Economics — U.S. Response to Canada’s Counter-tariffs — Washington swapped 20 products off the list for 300-plus on. Odds of further Canadian escalation are low; Carney has pivoted to next week’s investment summit, a fall budget and major projects.
TD Economics — Bond Yields: Higher for Longer — U.S. 10-year at 4.80%, highest since 2023; Canada’s 10-year up 60 basis points since February. Heavy government borrowing means no broad rally by year-end. The cost of long money for a build is not coming down soon.
WORTH WATCHING
Canada Investment Summit, September 14–15 — Carney’s prospectus pitches 160-plus projects to 300 global CEOs: the $35-billion Alberta–B.C. pipeline, Ksi Lisims LNG, a $14.5-billion AI data centre campus in Redcliff, Alta., and Edmonton–Calgary high-speed rail. A deal book is not a permit. Watch whether any “shovel-ready” project comes with a date. Globe and Mail
B.C. PST on Engineers and Architects, October 1 — Three weeks out. PST hits 30% of the bill for architectural, engineering, security and geoscience services on every project in the province. A multiparty committee told Victoria to cancel it; Finance Minister said no. CFIB found 72% of firms will pass the cost on. A tax on building, full stop. CFIB
Globe and Mail — Cement plants get a lifeline, cabinet makers get a death knell — The U.S. imported US$383.5 million of Canadian cement last year; dropping the duty keeps 14 Canadian plants shipping. New furniture duties shut the “tariff engineering” small manufacturers had been using.
COFFEE & CONSTRUCTION
Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, ICBA’s Jordan Bateman serves up a 10-minute rundown of the news facing BC and Alberta construction on the Coffee & Construction podcast. Catch the latest episode: C&C #29: A Trade War, a Road Sign, and a Tax on Your Engineer. Subscribe free on YouTube (@ICBATV), ICBA’s socials, or wherever you download podcasts.
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