TOP STORY
B.C. Swaps Governments, and the BoC Decides on a Hike Tomorrow
British Columbia ended nine years of NDP government on Saturday. Interim leader Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives won or led in 62 of 93 ridings, David Eby resigned as NDP leader, and Doerkson promised to cut red tape, double LNG production, cut income tax by $1,000 and bring in no new taxes (BNN Bloomberg). That is the right list for an industry that has lived with a $14-billion deficit, stalled housing starts and permit queues. Ottawa is watching too: Prime Minister Carney said he wants to work with Doerkson to “get more homes built.” Meanwhile the Bank of Canada decides Wednesday at 9:45 a.m. ET with a new Monetary Policy Report. In a Reuters poll, 19 of 34 economists expect a quarter-point hike to 2.50% after September CPI hit 3.1%, with core measures still under 2% (Canadian Mortgage Trends). For contractors carrying floating-rate construction loans, a hike on top of tariff-inflated materials costs is the wrong direction.
THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA
Secondary Distributors of Refined Petroleum Products, 2025 — Diesel sales to end-users rose 4.4% to 10.6 billion litres, and construction took 7.7% of the total. With oil elevated, that is a direct line into project budgets. Statistics Canada
Railway Carloadings, August 2026 — Total freight rose 8.0% to 32.8 million tonnes, led by wheat and canola. Coal loadings fell 8.6% and iron ore 8.0%, a soft spot for BC’s resource corridor. Statistics Canada
Wholesale Trade, Advance Indicator, September 2026 — Sales excluding petroleum and grain rose 0.5%, led by machinery and equipment. Provincial detail is not in the advance estimate. Statistics Canada
FROM THE ECONOMISTS
Bank previews of Wednesday’s BoC decision — Economists brace for Bank of Canada hike, but some urge patience — CIBC, RBC and National Bank lean toward a hike, though RBC calls a hold that sets up a later hike almost as likely. TD Economics expects a hold at 2.25%, saying business price increases are slow to reach consumers. Scotiabank’s Derek Holt argues the Bank should act on forward-looking inflation risk.
WORTH WATCHING
BoC Decision, Wednesday, October 28 — Watch the Monetary Policy Report’s oil and tariff assumptions. Tiff Macklem says the risk that inflation broadens “has gone up.”
Building Construction Price Indexes, Q3, Thursday — Statistics Canada’s read on what it costs to build. Expect tariff and fuel pressure to show up.
GDP by Industry, August, Friday — Tells us whether construction and resources carried the economy into fall.
COFFEE & CONSTRUCTION
Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, ICBA’s Jordan Bateman serves up a 10-minute rundown of the news facing BC and Alberta construction on the Coffee & Construction podcast. Catch the latest episode: DOERKSON WINS!!! | ICBA Coffee & Construction #46. Subscribe free on YouTube (@ICBATV), ICBA’s socials, or wherever you download podcasts.