ICBA EconoBot: Alberta's Construction Engine Pulls Ahead as B.C. Sputters

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Finlayson: Alberta’s Construction Engine Pulls Ahead as B.C. Sputters

In a new analysis of Statistics Canada’s preliminary 2025 GDP-by-industry data, ICBA Chief Economist Jock Finlayson lays bare a widening west-coast gap: Alberta’s economy grew 2.7% last year — best in the country outside PEI — while B.C. managed 2%, beating forecasts but still trailing its eastern neighbour. Construction tells the same story. Alberta construction GDP jumped 5% in 2025 vs 3% in B.C., and residential output surged 6.7% in Alberta on the back of a population boom while B.C. residential builders eked out just 0.7%. Zoom out to 2021–25 and the divergence is stark: Alberta residential construction GDP is up 18.9% — tops in Canada — while B.C. residential output has shrunk 13.4%. Jock’s bottom line for the next two years: “more optimistic about Alberta’s economic prospects than B.C.’s.” When population grows and hosting conditions for investment are favourable, construction thrives. When they don’t, it doesn’t.

THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA

Wholesale Trade, March 2026 — National wholesale sales rose 1.9% to $89.0 billion, led by machinery, equipment and supplies (+6.5% to $19.5B). Alberta posted the second-largest provincial gain, up 3.2% to $9.7 billion, with machinery and equipment surging 10.7%. Ontario led at +3.5%; Quebec fell 2.2%. Six of seven sub-sectors grew — a sign B-to-B activity is holding up despite tariff noise. Statistics Canada

New Motor Vehicle Sales, March 2026 — Canadians bought 176,500 new vehicles in March, down 6.6% from a year earlier. Truck sales fell 6.9% — a leading indicator worth watching for contractors and fleet operators digesting tariff pass-through. ZEVs hit 12.2% of new sales, up from 6.5% a year earlier. Statistics Canada

FROM THE ECONOMISTS

Bank of Canada — Summary of Governing Council Deliberations (April 29 hold) — Released yesterday. Governing Council says the outlook is “highly conditional” on U.S. tariffs holding steady and Middle East oil prices easing. New U.S. tariffs could prompt cuts; entrenched oil-driven inflation could force hikes. Translation: no clear path, and contractors should not plan on rate relief.

WORTH WATCHING

Carney-Smith Carbon & Pipeline Deal — Friday — Ottawa and Alberta are set to announce a deal Friday ramping the industrial carbon price to $130/tonne by 2040 — clearing a major hurdle to federal backing for a new oil pipeline to B.C.’s Pacific coast. The Business Council of Alberta says the framework could flip a projected $9-billion provincial deficit into a $6-billion surplus on stronger energy investment. For B.C. contractors, a new west-coast pipeline would mean years of engineering and heavy construction work. CBC News

Softwood Lumber Duties — August Final Results — U.S. duties on most Canadian softwood now sit at 45.16% (combined countervailing, anti-dumping, and Section 232). The Commerce Department’s preliminary April 9 review pointed higher; final results land in August at the earliest. B.C. mills remain in the firing line, and any further escalation will tighten domestic lumber supply. U.S. Dept. of Commerce