TOP STORY
Budget Day: Ottawa Spends an Oil Windfall It Hasn’t Earned
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne tables Budget 2026 this afternoon, and the warnings from the bank desks are blunt. Desjardins’ Randall Bartlett counts nearly $140 billion in new spending and tax measures announced since April, pointing to much larger deficits; Signal 49’s Pedro Antunes says fiscal “credibility around this has been worn thin”. Scotiabank expects a package near $80 billion, led by the $36 billion Productivity Mega Deduction, and sees the Bank of Canada adding another 75 basis points of hikes as the spending push collides with 3% inflation. The oil windfall Ottawa is counting on is already wobbling: Brent fell 8.7% to US$94.62 on Wednesday after the U.S. midterms raised hopes of an Iran settlement, before edging back above US$95 this morning. For B.C. and Alberta contractors, the test is simple: does the money build pipelines, ports, power and housing, or does it fund a bigger operating government that keeps rates and costs high? Watch the capital-versus-operating split, the defence plan, and whether the Canada Strong Fund puts real equity behind West Coast projects.
THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA
Merchandise Trade, September 2026 — Exports edged up 0.2% to $78.6B and imports slipped 0.3%, widening the surplus to $5.4B. Crude oil and bitumen (+10.2%), natural gas (+32.1%) and gold carried the month; strip out energy and metals and exports fell 5.6%. Export volumes fell 4.0%. Statistics Canada
Sawmills, August 2026 — Lumber production rose 4.0% from July to 3.67 million cubic metres but sits 3.8% below August 2025. Shipments fell 3.7% on the month. Statistics Canada
Provincial and Territorial Economic Accounts, 2025 — National GDP grew 1.9%. Capital investment rose 1.6%, led by government spending on engineering structures and non-residential buildings, with B.C. among the leaders, while B.C. business investment in engineering structures declined. Business machinery and equipment spending fell for a second year, and Alberta’s corporate incomes dropped on weaker mining. Statistics Canada
FROM THE ECONOMISTS
Scotiabank Economics — Ambition, Meet Arithmetic — Debt stabilizes near 42.5% of GDP, about a point above the spring path. Most new outlays sit on the capital side; Scotia says durable gains in the capital stock are the true test.
BMO and CIBC — Solid headline trade surplus number masks underlying softness — BMO’s Shelly Kaushik says the latest U.S. tariffs weighed heavily in September. CIBC’s Andrew Grantham sees net trade as a drag on Q4 GDP even if a deal lands, with growth dipping just under 1%.
ATB Economics — “Propping up” — Gold and oil exports are masking tariff damage. ATB expects high oil prices to support export values until new pipeline capacity arrives next year; a stable long-term U.S. trade deal is still the missing piece.
WORTH WATCHING
Budget Fine Print, Tonight — Look past the headline deficit to the five-year capital plan, the tax measures for small and medium-sized businesses Champagne has promised, and any housing supply moves such as capital gains relief on sales to approved housing providers.
October Jobs Report, Friday — Canada shed 68,000 jobs in September. Another weak print would sharpen the squeeze between a hiking Bank of Canada and a softening labour market; construction hiring is the line to watch.
September Building Permits, November 12 — The first read on whether developers are pulling back as costs and rates climb, especially in Vancouver and Calgary.
IN BRIEF
ICBA — The federal NDP wants a union monopoly. Their evidence doesn’t hold up. Jordan Bateman argues the case for union-only project agreements rests on a Building Trades study of plant maintenance, not construction, that never measures productivity. Such deals inflate costs and shut out most of the qualified workforce.
COFFEE & CONSTRUCTION
Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, ICBA’s Jordan Bateman serves up a 10-minute rundown of the news facing BC and Alberta construction on the Coffee & Construction podcast. Catch the latest episode: Energy Independence Just Got Ten Court Files. Subscribe free on YouTube (@ICBATV), ICBA’s socials, or wherever you download podcasts.