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1.1% “Flatline” Forecast: What It Means for Construction (and What ICBA is Doing)

Written by Jordan Bateman | Jan 22, 2026 3:35:17 PM
KEY POINTS
  • B.C. is flatlining: ICBA’s Construction Monitor forecasts just 1.1% GDP growth in 2026.
  • Housing starts are projected to drop 42,200 → 34,500 in 2026 – so ICBA is pushing Metro Vancouver to roll back the Jan. 1 DCC hike, because higher fees mean fewer projects, fewer homes, and fewer jobs.
  • The Province delayed its Heritage Conservation Act changes after concerns from ICBA and others.
  • ICBA members can attend our FREE CEO Breakfast on Wednesday, Feb. 11 at the Vancouver Convention Centre – featuring a big-picture panel on “Indigenous Rights and Title: What’s Next?” moderated by Vaughn Palmer, plus legal experts Thomas Isaac and Geoffrey Moyse (tickets are going fast – reserve yours).

B.C. ECONOMY FLATLINING


This week, ICBA released our Winter 2026 Construction Monitor, with key sector indicators and ICBA Chief Economist Jock Finlayson’s economic forecast – real GDP growth of just 1.1% in 2026, alongside a weaker job market and higher unemployment.

As ICBA President & CEO Chris Gardner put it: “A 1.1% economy isn’t real growth or even a recovery – it’s essentially a flatline.”

Housing is the big warning light: starts are forecast to fall 42,200 → 34,500 in 2026 –especially important for multi-family and Lower Mainland contractors.

That’s a red flag we keep waving in front of politicians, as we try to impress on them how slow the market has become. Just last week, we sent another letter to the Metro Vancouver Board urging them to roll back their January 1st DCC hike, scrap plans for further increases, and launch an independent review of the fee calculations – with real transparency and accountability.

We are hyperaware that fewer homes getting built and fewer jobs for the trades – it’s time our politicians grasp that fact.  

Read the B.C. Construction Monitor HERE (and if you’re curious about the sunnier outlook for Alberta, see the Alberta Monitor HERE).

For a national look, check out Jock’s op-ed for Yahoo News. Spoiler alert: phrases like “lacklustre,” “sluggish,” “uncertainty,” and “not exactly cheerful” punctuate his analysis of Canada’s 2026 economic situation.

 

INDIGENOUS RIGHTS, CERTAINTY & PERMITTING


We had some good news this week as the NDP Government announced it is delaying its Heritage Conservation Act (HCA) legislation
to allow more feedback from industry, local governments, and First Nations.

ICBA has been leading the effort against the HCA since 2023. While we support protecting heritage (including Indigenous history), these proposals would add more complexity and delay to a system where Archaeological Impact Assessments can already take up to a year – meaning higher costs, slower projects, and fewer homes and less infrastructure getting built. Chris dug into province’s postponement and what comes next on CKNW’s Jas Johal Show Tuesday.

In an op-ed for Northern Beat, Chris laid out why B.C.’s current approach to Indigenous land-use deals is creating major uncertainty for investment and jobs – warning that when government secretly experiments with “co-title” and “consent-based decision-making,” it’s “playing Jenga with the legal foundation of our economy.”

Northern Beat is one of the few publications fearlessly tackling these issues and has become an important voice in B.C. It’s well worth checking out HERE – and supporting with a subscription.

Next up: the ICBA CEO Breakfast on Wednesday morning, February 11, featuring a conversation on “Indigenous Rights and Title: What’s Next?” moderated by the Vancouver Sun’s Vaughn Palmer, with legal experts Thomas Isaac and Geoffrey Moyse, along with Chris offering ICBA’s view on these issues.

Alarm bells are ringing on where things are heading. Our entire economy is underpinned by private property rights and certainty around who owns the land and who has the right to make decisions on its use. This is likely to be the most consequential policy issue that ICBA advocates on in its 50-year history.

The ICBA CEO Breakfast, kicking off the BUILDEX trade show at the Vancouver Convention Centre is FREE for ICBA members, and tickets are going fast. Click HERE to reserve your spot.

 

ICYMI 

Other news and notes from ICBA’s advocacy over the past couple of weeks:

  • Canada’s stock market is shrinking (fewer public companies and IPOs), which means less accessible capital for Canadian businesses to grow and fewer ways for everyday Canadians to invest in that growth – a warning sign for long-term prosperity (Fraser Institute piece, co-authored by Jock)
  • Union “market share” has been drifting down for decades, but NDP labour-law changes are giving unions more leverage in Victoria – raising the stakes for employers and B.C.’s investment climate (Business in Vancouver, co-authored by Jock). Concerned about labour relations? ICBA can help.
  • Following his decision not to run for the leadership of the Conservative Party of B.C., Chris talked about men’s health issues (CBC Radio)

ICBA continues our work on these and other advocacy files on behalf of our members – if there’s a public policy or red tape issue your company is facing municipally, provincially, or federally, that you could use some help with, reach out to us at jordan@icba.ca.