TOP STORY
Pipelines Pay: Alberta Crude to China Up 159% as Carney Heads to Beijing
Build the pipe and the barrels follow. Statistics Canada reported today that the first full year of the expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline pushed Canadian energy exports up 3.1% in 2025, while the new Kitimat terminal shipped Canada’s first LNG to anyone other than the United States (Statistics Canada). The payoff is now in the trade data: Canada-China trade hit a record $36.8 billion in the third quarter, with crude exports to China up 159% to 327,000 barrels a day and Alberta and Saskatchewan supplying nearly 78% of the gain (BNN Bloomberg). Prime Minister Carney flies to Asia Wednesday to meet Xi Jinping at APEC with leverage that exists only because Canada built that pipeline. The lesson for the West Coast Oil Pipeline, Ksi Lisims and LNG Canada Phase 2 is plain: every year of permitting delay hands another year of record Asian demand to Qatar, Australia and the Gulf. For BC and Alberta contractors, pipelines, terminals and the power to run them are the biggest private-sector work program on the horizon.
THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA
Energy Supply and Demand, 2025 — Released today. Primary energy production rose 3.3% to a record, with crude oil (48%) and natural gas (36%) both at all-time highs; Canada exported 80.4% of its crude. Energy use climbed 2.3%, led by Alberta (+3.5%), with construction (+2.4%) and oil and gas extraction (+3.8%) among the few industrial gainers. Statistics Canada
FROM THE ECONOMISTS
Bank of Canada — Market Participants Survey, Third Quarter 2026 — The Street’s median path: 2.50% through December, 2.75% by March 2027 and parked there through 2028. Not one of the roughly 25 respondents sees risks tilted toward lower rates, and 92% say the economy is running below potential. For builders on floating-rate construction loans, cheap money is not coming back.
Desjardins — The Canadian Immigration Plan: Different Packaging, Same Approach — Ottawa holds permanent residents at 380,000 a year and temporary residents at 370,000, plus a one-time 200,000 transition in 2027. Desjardins calls it “more like a replay than a revamp” and sees population growth turning negative this year — softer rental demand now, a thinner trades labour pool later.
WORTH WATCHING
BoC Summary of Deliberations — Out at 1:30 pm ET today. Watch how split Governing Council was on the October 28 hike to 2.50% and whether the weak October jobs report has anyone rethinking a second move. Deputy Governor Gravelle speaks in Edmonton November 18; next decision December 9. Bank of Canada
Building Permits, September — Thursday, November 12, after the Remembrance Day pause. August permits jumped 8.8%, with Alberta up 21.7% on industrial and BC up 7.5% on multi-unit; the question is whether September held the gain. StatCan release schedule
IN BRIEF
Finance Canada — Canada modifies tariff relief measures. Counter-tariff remission runs to June 30, 2028 and now covers non-steel inputs for mining and oil and gas, while trailers (December 1) and aluminum wire and extrusions (February 1) lose relief.
BNN Bloomberg — Ottawa’s $6.5-billion forestry plan offers hope but no quick fix for mills. None of the money flows before 2027-28 — cold comfort on the Sunshine Coast, where Domtar idled Howe Sound pulp and 400 jobs with it.
Finning — Q3 revenue up 7% to $3.04 billion, backlog a record $4.1 billion. Western Canada’s Caterpillar dealer says things keep moving — a better read on mine, oilsands and heavy-civil demand than any survey.
COFFEE & CONSTRUCTION
Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, ICBA’s Jordan Bateman serves up a 10-minute rundown of the news facing BC and Alberta construction on the Coffee & Construction podcast. Catch the latest episode: The Count is Done | C&C #50. Subscribe free on YouTube (@ICBATV), ICBA’s socials, or wherever you download podcasts.