TOP STORY
The Trade War Is Here: 50% U.S. Tariffs Hit Cement and Wood Products — Ottawa Fires Back Sept. 8
Canada-U.S. trade talks collapsed late Friday, and 50 per cent American tariffs landed on roughly C$28 billion (US$20 billion) of Canadian exports — a list that includes wood products, cement, ceramics and furniture, materials that run through every construction supply chain. Prime Minister Carney, saying the U.S. “asked too much and offered too little,” promised dollar-for-dollar retaliation starting September 8 aimed at U.S. steel, dairy, agricultural equipment, paper and electronics. President Trump escalated Monday, threatening to push tariffs on Canadian autos, parts and steel to 50 per cent on January 1, 2027. Markets took the weekend in stride — Scotiabank’s Derek Holt saw “only mild market reactions thus far” as the loonie slid to 72.27 cents US. But Capital Economics warns the most exposed industries “could be crippled,” and that a wider escalation could shave 2 per cent off GDP and tip Canada into recession, while economist Trevor Tombe pegs potential job losses near 90,000. For contractors already paying tariff-inflated prices for steel, aluminum and lumber, retaliation means the cost squeeze now comes from both directions.
THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA
Wholesale Trade: Advance Indicator, July 2026 — Released today. Wholesale sales (ex-petroleum and grain) fell 0.6%, dragged down by agricultural supplies and the mineral, ore and precious metal group — an early sign trade chaos is seeping into domestic sales pipelines. Statistics Canada
Railway Carloadings, June 2026 — Released today. Railways moved 30.9 million tonnes, up 3.2% year-over-year and the best June in seven years. Canola (+44.1%) and crude and fuel oils (+41.3%) surged, but coal (-16.6%), iron ore and potash all sagged — a mixed report card for the resource economy that pays Western Canada’s bills. Statistics Canada
FROM THE ECONOMISTS
ICBA Economics / Fraser Institute — How Canadian Policymakers Should Respond to Trump’s Tariffs — ICBA Chief Economist Jock Finlayson and Steven Globerman argue Ottawa should resist the reflexive urge to retaliate (it raises costs for Canadian firms and households without moving Trump), preserve what’s left of CUSMA, and finally get serious about tax and regulatory reform. The new tariffs alone could trim growth by up to 0.4% a year through 2027.
ICBA Economics / Business in Vancouver — Trump Tariffs Aren’t B.C. Forestry’s Biggest Problem — Finlayson and Ken Peacock: Interior lumber production is down 57% since 2016, and harvesting and transportation costs run 75–154% above the U.S. South. The industry’s killer is homegrown policy, not Washington.
WORTH WATCHING
Canada’s Retaliation List — Ottawa releases the details “in the coming days” before the September 8 start. Watch whether U.S. steel and appliances make the list — those costs land directly on construction budgets.
GDP Week at StatCan — Payroll employment and job vacancies Thursday, then June and Q2 GDP Friday — the first hard read on the economy heading into a fall trade war. Release schedule
Carney’s Toronto Investment Summit — The PM hosts global bankers and business leaders next month. Selling Canada as a top-tier investment jurisdiction mid-trade-war, with private investment stagnant since 2014, will be a tough brief.
IN BRIEF
BNN Bloomberg — Markets shrug, mostly — TSX ended Monday nearly flat, gold hit a record US$4,732, and oil slid to US$84.90. Investors, it seems, never priced in a deal.
USMCA Exemption Gone — Unlike earlier tariff rounds, there is no carve-out for USMCA-compliant goods in the new 50% levies — a first since 2025, and a bad omen for the agreement’s renegotiation.
COFFEE & CONSTRUCTION
Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, ICBA’s Jordan Bateman serves up a 10-minute rundown of the news facing B.C. and Alberta construction on the Coffee & Construction podcast. Catch the latest episode: C&C #23: The Trade War Is Here. Subscribe free on YouTube (@ICBATV), ICBA’s socials, or wherever you download podcasts.