TOP STORY
Snap Election Puts B.C.’s Business Climate on the Ballot — and on Hold
David Eby sent British Columbians to the polls two years early, with a vote set for October 24. He goes in with a one-seat majority, a record $13.8-billion deficit and a cabinet emptying out: four ministers, including former finance minister Brenda Bailey, won’t run again. Days before the writ, Eby paused the October 1 PST expansion to engineering, architecture and other professional services — paused, not scrapped, so every contractor pricing a 2027 job still carries a 7% question mark. The Conservatives have regrouped under interim leader Lorne Doerkson; the first poll has the NDP at 41, Conservatives 36. For builders, the next month is limbo: no permitting reform, no provincial procurement decisions, no answers on the deficit. Ask every candidate at your door where they stand on the PST, project approvals and the $13.8 billion — whoever wins inherits the bill.
THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA
Payroll Employment and Job Vacancies, July 2026 — Released today. Payroll employment rose 26,100 (+0.1%); average weekly earnings hit $1,347, up 3.2% year over year. The line to read: construction job vacancies fell 4,000 (-10.4%), giving back most of May’s jump. Fewer postings means less hiring, not more workers. Statistics Canada
Retail Trade, July 2026 — Released today. Sales fell 0.7% to $73.7 billion. Building material dealers (+0.8%) were the only core category to grow, a fourth straight gain. B.C. dropped 1.4%; Alberta led the country at +1.4%. August’s advance estimate points to a 1.3% rebound. Statistics Canada
Manufacturing Advance Indicator, August 2026 — Released today. Sales rose an estimated 1.1%, led by primary metals and chemicals — a rare good sign for a steel sector squeezed by tariffs on both sides of the border. Statistics Canada
Population Estimates, Q2 2026 — Released Wednesday. Canada hit 41.8 million on July 1, up 0.2% on the quarter. The real news: a new count of non-permanent residents added roughly 300,000 people to earlier estimates. Statistics Canada
FROM THE ECONOMISTS
RBC Economics — Revised numbers point to positive population growth in Canada — Annual growth now sits at 0.5%, not negative. Non-permanent residents are up 240,000 (+9.4%) from the prior estimate as expiring permits pile up in the extension queue.
Scotiabank Economics — Population in Canada: Adjustments — Work permits drive 70–80% of the revision; student arrivals sit at 18% of the 2026 cap. Scotia expects the fall Immigration Levels Plan to bend to Ottawa’s build agenda.
TD Economics — Canadian Retail Sales (July 2026) — Volumes fell a sharper 1.1%. TD sees Q3 goods spending flat and consumption up 2.6% annualized as the worst of the mortgage renewal wave passes.
WORTH WATCHING
B.C. Election, October 24 — Watch for planks on the PST expansion, the deficit, permitting timelines and B.C. Ferries procurement. A campaign fought on Trump and tariffs is a campaign that dodges the province’s own cost problem.
IN BRIEF
BNN Bloomberg — Ottawa opens up 15% Trans Mountain equity stake to Indigenous groups on pipeline path — Up to 129 First Nations can buy in through a low-cost federal loan, with $2.5 million each for “lost time.”
Global News — 3rd minister for David Eby announces they will not run in B.C. election — Kelly Greene cited Tilbury LNG, which she opposed, as her reason for leaving. That plant has operated safely for decades.
COFFEE & CONSTRUCTION
Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, ICBA’s Jordan Bateman serves up a 10-minute rundown of the news facing B.C. and Alberta construction on the Coffee & Construction podcast. Catch the latest episode: C&C #34: Eby Rolls the Dice on an Early Election. Subscribe free on YouTube (@ICBATV), ICBA’s socials, or wherever you download podcasts.