TOP STORY
Rate Hike Odds Build for Oct. 28, and Contractors Hold the Bill
The Bank of Canada has held at 2.25% for seven straight decisions, but the debate has flipped from cuts to hikes. UBS, Manulife, Oxford Economics and Scotiabank have pulled forecasts forward to an October increase, according to Canadian Mortgage Professional. CIBC’s Helen Lao pushes back: August CPI ran 3%, but gasoline explains about 0.8 points of the overshoot, and only 38% of CPI components are above 3%. The Fed already moved in September, and CIBC says Canada “could follow suit in 2027.” Either way, builders are stuck. Oil near US$100 lifts Alberta revenues, but it also lifts diesel, asphalt and freight on every job site, while a hike would raise financing costs on projects already squeezed by tariffs. RBC notes crude rose another 16% into September, and Governor Macklem has warned that Q4 growth could dip below 1% if the new U.S. tariffs stay. Higher rates, high fuel costs and tariffs at once is a hard mix for a bid price.
THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA
Critical Mineral Production, 2024 — Released today. Critical minerals added $26.3B to GDP (0.9% of the economy) and supported about 57,500 jobs. Real output grew 8.2%. Potash ($7.0B) led, ahead of aluminum ($6.4B), and potash is down sharply from its 2022 peak of $14.7B. Aluminum, the biggest jobs source at 15,800, is now exposed to U.S. tariffs. Statistics Canada
Merchandise Trade, August 2026 — Released Tuesday. Exports rose 2.5% to $77.9B and imports fell 2.0%, widening the surplus to $4.2B. Energy exports gained 4.7%, led by refined products (+17.4%, mostly diesel). Industrial machinery exports jumped 10.1% to the highest since January 2025. Statistics Canada
FROM THE ECONOMISTS
RBC Economics — Canadian Exports Surged Ahead of New U.S. Tariffs in August — Exporters of targeted products rushed shipments south, up about 40% year over year. RBC expects that to reverse in September. The average U.S. tariff on Canadian goods rose to 3.2%, and over 80% of exports still enter duty-free under CUSMA.
CIBC Economics — The case for a Canadian hike is weaker than the Fed’s — Canada’s inflation is narrow and fuel-driven. Easing gasoline prices could do more than a hike. September CPI lands Oct. 19, and UBS expects 3.3%.
ATB Economics — Feeling the Squeeze — In a survey of 78 Alberta owners, 28% are delaying or cancelling capital expansions, 40% are raising prices and 30% are eating the margin hit. About 70% plan to hold headcount flat.
WORTH WATCHING
September Labour Force Survey — Due tomorrow, Oct. 9. Alberta’s jobless rate was 6.8% in August, above the 6.4% national rate, per ATB. Watch construction hiring in both provinces.
September CPI, Oct. 19, then the BoC on Oct. 28 — A print near 3.3% would sharpen the hike case. Fuel, not wages, is the driver, which is why a hike would hurt without fixing the problem.
September Trade Data — BNN Bloomberg reports the new U.S. tariffs, which took effect Aug. 22 and cover about US$20B of goods including cement, will show their full effect in September.
COFFEE & CONSTRUCTION
Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, ICBA's Jordan Bateman serves up a 10-minute rundown of the news facing BC and Alberta construction on the Coffee & Construction podcast. Catch the latest episode: You Don’t Win by Leaving the Room. Subscribe free on YouTube (@ICBATV), ICBA's socials, or wherever you download podcasts.