TOP STORY
Oil-Fueled Trade Surplus Greets the Bank of Canada on Decision Eve
Canada posted a record $75.2 billion in merchandise exports in April, widening the trade surplus to $2.7 billion — the largest since January 2025 — on the back of a 9.7% surge in energy exports driven almost entirely by higher oil prices amid the Iran conflict (Statistics Canada). Crude oil exports rose 7.0%, and the surplus with the United States ballooned to $9.5 billion, the widest since February 2025. That is good news for Alberta producers, but it lands awkwardly on the Bank of Canada’s doorstep: governors announce their rate decision tomorrow morning, and the same oil spike has pushed inflation back above the 2% target. RBC expects a fifth straight hold at 2.25%, noting there is little the Bank can do about global oil prices and scant evidence the spike is bleeding into core inflation (RBC Economics). With Q1 GDP marking a second straight quarterly contraction, Macklem is caught between a wobbly economy and energy-fed prices — exactly the bind that keeps construction borrowing costs frozen in place.
THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA
Canadian International Merchandise Trade, April 2026 — Exports hit a record $75.2B (+1.6%), imports a record $72.4B (+0.3%). Notably, imports of computers and peripherals jumped 13.2% to a record — processing units from Ireland bound for data centres — and are up 24.7% year-to-date. Statistics Canada
Quarterly Rent Statistics, Q1 2026 — Average asking rent for a two-bedroom slipped 0.9% year-over-year to $2,150 nationally. Vancouver fell to $3,100 (-2.2%), Calgary to $1,900 (-1.0%) and Edmonton to $1,580 (-0.6%); Halifax bucked the trend at $2,350 (+5.4%). Softer rents reflect the wave of purpose-built supply finally hitting the market. Statistics Canada
FROM THE ECONOMISTS
RBC Economics — Bank of Canada to Hold as Prices Rise but Economy Wobbles — Calls Wednesday a fifth consecutive hold. RBC sees rates parked at 2.25% through 2026, with the next move — a hike, not a cut — not arriving until 2027 and only if growth and the labour market firm up.
ICBA Economics (Jock Finlayson) — Storm Clouds Continuing to Gather Over Canada's Economy — Canada has shed roughly 120,000 jobs so far this year and posted its second straight quarterly GDP decline — a technical recession propped up only by consumers dipping into savings. Finlayson's real worry is chronically weak business investment, now below 60% of the U.S. level per worker, with housing-related investment falling yet again despite the political noise about supply.
WORTH WATCHING
Bank of Canada Decision — Wednesday, June 10 — Announcement at 6:45 a.m. Pacific time, Macklem presser at 7:30. Markets price roughly a two-thirds chance of no change, but soft GDP has nudged cut odds higher. Any signal on how long the Bank tolerates above-target inflation matters for project financing.
IN BRIEF
Wheat Watch — Canadian wheat exports surged 31.9% in April, lifted by stronger shipments to China, while exports to China overall hit a record $3.8 billion. Statistics Canada
Tariff Watch — Despite the trade-war noise, exports to the U.S. rose for a third straight month (+4.8%), led by crude oil and passenger vehicles — a reminder that energy and autos still anchor the cross-border relationship. Statistics Canada