TOP STORY
Jobs Shock Shelves an October Rate Hike as BC Slips and Alberta Surges
Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, the second straight monthly drop, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.5%, according to Statistics Canada. The split matters for our members. B.C. shed 20,000 jobs, its first decline since March, while Alberta added 23,000 and cut its jobless rate to 6.4%. ATB Economics notes Alberta has taken 73% of the country’s job gains this year. The public sector is where the losses landed: 70,000 fewer public-sector jobs in the month and 119,000 fewer than a year ago, with most of the annual drop in educational services. A leaner state is what taxpayers have been asking for. But it only pays off if private employers pick up the slack, and in September they didn’t. Private-sector payrolls were flat, so total employment fell. For the Bank of Canada, economists quoted by BNN Bloomberg say a hike on October 28 is now off the table, though traders still price a quarter-point move in December. Contractors face the worst mix: no rate relief, stubborn costs and a thinner labour pool as participation falls to its lowest level since 1997 outside the pandemic.
THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA
Labour Force Survey, September 2026 — Employment fell 0.3% nationally; manufacturing lost 13,000 jobs. B.C. employment dropped 0.7% to a 6.4% jobless rate. Alberta employment is up 2.9% from a year ago, versus 0.5% nationally. Next release: November 6. Statistics Canada
FROM THE ECONOMISTS
ATB Economics — Divergence — Sees a Q3 slowdown nationally but an Alberta rebound led by services. Oil and gas extraction jobs keep falling. ATB expects the Bank of Canada to hold through 2026, with two hikes in 2027.
TD Economics — The Weekly Bottom Line — Expects a hold on October 28. The October 19 CPI report is the key input: a mild print backs a hold, firm core inflation revives the case for tightening.
WORTH WATCHING
October 19: September CPI — The last big data point before the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision. A hot core reading puts a December hike back in play and keeps mortgage and construction financing costs high.
Who Is Going to Build? — ATB has a two-part series asking whether the trades can absorb a wave of major projects. Part 2 is worth a read before the next round of megaproject announcements.
COFFEE & CONSTRUCTION
Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, ICBA’s Jordan Bateman serves up a 10-minute rundown of the news facing BC and Alberta construction on the Coffee & Construction podcast. Catch the latest episode: $8 Billion for Alberta Bases, a Lawsuit Against the Pipeline. Subscribe free on YouTube (@ICBATV), ICBA’s socials, or wherever you download podcasts.