--- title: ICBA ECONOBOT: Is Canada Climbing Out of Its Slump after GDP Posts Strongest Month Since Last Summer? description: Canada's economy shows signs of recovery with a 0.5% GDP growth in April, driven by construction and energy sectors, though caution remains for future projections. --- [Economics Blog ](https://icba.ca/economics-blog) # [ICBA ECONOBOT: Is Canada Climbing Out of Its Slump after GDP Posts Strongest Month Since Last Summer?](https://icba.ca/economics-blog/icba-econobot-is-canada-climbing-out-of-its-slump-after-gdp-posts-strongest-month-since-last-summer) Written by [Jordan Bateman](https://icba.ca/economics-blog/author/jordan) | Jun 30, 2026 4:10:11 PM *Editor’s note: there will be no EconoBot briefing Thursday, July 2, due to the holiday. Have a great Canada Day, and we will be back July 7. ***TOP STORY** **Construction Up as GDP Posts Its Strongest Month Since Last Summer** The economy grew 0.5% in April — its biggest monthly gain since July 2025 — and for once construction was part of the good news. After four straight monthly declines, national construction output rose 0.7%, led by residential building (+1.3%) and a 10th consecutive monthly gain in non-residential building (+1.2%). The broader rebound was powered by Western Canada’s resource base: mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction jumped 2.9% — the fastest since February 2024 — on an oil sands recovery as synthetic crude production came back online after extended maintenance. It’s a welcome report, but may not be a full turning point. [Statistics Canada](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260630/dq260630a-eng.htm?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--XTim2L0F4eZif3j1Xm3KO3_4PkeByi-F6fcXZC-A-ekbgVWiazYV0dhWDpbguJKO-6bji)’s advance estimate pegs May growth at just 0.1%, and the [Bank of Canada](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/06/fad-press-release-2026-06-10/?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--XTim2L0F4eZif3j1Xm3KO3_4PkeByi-F6fcXZC-A-ekbgVWiazYV0dhWDpbguJKO-6bji) — which held its policy rate at 2.25% on June 10 — still faces an economy running well below the pace needed to absorb the tariff hit. For BC and Alberta contractors, the read is cautious optimism.   **THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA** **Energy Statistics, April 2026** — Primary energy production rose 4.1% year-over-year to 2.1 million gigajoules, with gains in five of six subsectors — a tailwind for Alberta producers and the LNG build-out on the coast. [Statistics Canada](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260630/dq260630c-eng.htm?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--XTim2L0F4eZif3j1Xm3KO3_4PkeByi-F6fcXZC-A-ekbgVWiazYV0dhWDpbguJKO-6bji) **Machinery & Equipment Price Index, April 2026** — StatCan’s monthly equipment-cost tracker is out for April. One to watch closely as tariffs and a soft loonie feed into the price of the cranes, excavators and capital gear contractors depend on. [Statistics Canada](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260630/dq260630f-eng.htm?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--XTim2L0F4eZif3j1Xm3KO3_4PkeByi-F6fcXZC-A-ekbgVWiazYV0dhWDpbguJKO-6bji)   **WORTH WATCHING** **Bank of Canada — July 15** — The next rate decision arrives with a full Monetary Policy Report. With [CPI back up at 3.2% in May](https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260622/dq260622a-eng.htm?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--XTim2L0F4eZif3j1Xm3KO3_4PkeByi-F6fcXZC-A-ekbgVWiazYV0dhWDpbguJKO-6bji) on higher energy prices, don’t bank on a cut — markets see a hold, and a few economists are now flagging a hike before year-end. **Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Extended** — Ottawa [extended its steel and aluminum tariff and quota measures](https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2026/06/canada-to-extend-steel-and-aluminum-tariff-measures-to-support-workers-and-businesses.html?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--XTim2L0F4eZif3j1Xm3KO3_4PkeByi-F6fcXZC-A-ekbgVWiazYV0dhWDpbguJKO-6bji) for another year just ahead of their June 30 expiry, keeping relief flowing for eligible inputs. Watch the July 1 CUSMA framework talks, where Canada is pushing to fold in softwood lumber. **Major Projects Pipeline** — Construction on Enbridge’s [$4B Sunrise natural gas pipeline expansion](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ottawa-approves-enbridge-s-4b-sunrise-natural-gas-pipeline-expansion-project-9.7175787?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--XTim2L0F4eZif3j1Xm3KO3_4PkeByi-F6fcXZC-A-ekbgVWiazYV0dhWDpbguJKO-6bji) in BC is slated to start in July, while [LNG Canada Phase 2](https://www.canada.ca/en/privy-council/major-projects-office/projects/national/lng-canada.html?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--XTim2L0F4eZif3j1Xm3KO3_4PkeByi-F6fcXZC-A-ekbgVWiazYV0dhWDpbguJKO-6bji) eyes a final investment decision by year-end. Real shovels, real jobs — if the timelines hold.   **IN BRIEF** **CMHC** — [Housing starts are projected to keep falling through 2028](https://globalnews.ca/news/11863110/investment-housing-construction-declining/?utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--XTim2L0F4eZif3j1Xm3KO3_4PkeByi-F6fcXZC-A-ekbgVWiazYV0dhWDpbguJKO-6bji), from 247,000 in 2026 to 216,000 by 2028, as weak condo demand outweighs strength in rental construction. **Inflation Watch** — May CPI landed at 3.2%, pushed up by energy even as core measures stayed contained — one more reason the Bank of Canada is sitting on its hands. > ###### *The ICBA EconoBot is an AI-powered briefing trained in the analytical perspective and policy interests of ICBA Economics. **Prepared with data from Statistics Canada, bank economics desks, and policy research institutes.*   [View full post](https://icba.ca/economics-blog/icba-econobot-is-canada-climbing-out-of-its-slump-after-gdp-posts-strongest-month-since-last-summer) ```json { "@context" : "http://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Jordan Bateman" }, "dateModified" : "2026-06-30T16:10:11.510Z", "datePublished" : "2026-06-30T16:10:11Z", "headline" : "ICBA ECONOBOT: Is Canada Climbing Out of Its Slump after GDP Posts Strongest Month Since Last Summer?", "image" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "height" : 900, "url" : "https://341692513.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na3.net/hubfs/341692513/Heading%20%28Twitter%20Post%29%20%282%29.png", "width" : 1600 }, "mainEntityOfPage" : "https://icba.ca/economics-blog/icba-econobot-is-canada-climbing-out-of-its-slump-after-gdp-posts-strongest-month-since-last-summer", "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "height" : 60, "url" : "/hs/hsstatic/content_shared_assets/static-1.4092/img/default-amp-logo.png", "width" : 60 }, "name" : "Economics Blog" } } ```