PLEASE NOTE: We are presently testing an ICBA EconoBot -- a twice-a-week, AI-led curation of economic news important to ICBA members in B.C. and Alberta. Soon, ICBA members will be able to subscribe to get the briefing in their email inboxes.
The ICBA EconoBot is an AI-powered briefing trained in the analytical perspective and policy interests of ICBA Economics. Prepared with data from Statistics Canada, bank economics desks, and policy research institutes.
TOP STORY
Finlayson & Peacock: B.C. May Already Be in a Recession
ICBA Chief Economist Jock Finlayson and Ken Peacock argue in Business in Vancouver that a credible case can now be made that British Columbia has stumbled into a shallow recession. The warning signs are piling up: B.C. shed roughly 20,000 jobs in both February and March — record back-to-back declines outside the pandemic — and every one of those losses was in the private sector, even as public-sector headcount keeps climbing 2.5% year-over-year. B.C.’s population is now shrinking for the first time in years, removing a key engine of top-line GDP growth. Homebuilding is heading into what ICBA Economics calls a “nuclear winter,” with housing starts projected to crater from ~44,000 in 2025 to closer to 30,000 in both 2026 and 2027. Business confidence is sagging under the weight of the Eby government’s tax hikes, ballooning deficits, and mounting uncertainty over private property rights in the wake of court rulings and policy moves on Aboriginal title. The external backdrop — a soft U.S. labour market and Middle East-driven energy inflation — isn’t helping. Finlayson and Peacock’s bottom line: even if calendar-year 2026 ends in positive territory, the incoming data say large swaths of B.C.’s economy are already contracting.
THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA
Farm Product Prices, February 2026 — Released today. Feeder cattle prices ripped higher year-over-year in the West: British Columbia +42.4%, Alberta +41.7%, Saskatchewan +34.1%, and Manitoba +35.5% — driven by tight North American supply and strong demand. Canola and dry pea prices also gained on the preliminary China-Canada tariff deal. Statistics Canada
Electric Power Selling Price Index, February 2026 — Released today. The monthly index tracks price variation on electricity sales to commercial and industrial users — a direct input-cost signal for energy-intensive sectors including construction supply, concrete, steel fabrication, and data-centre operations. Statistics Canada
FROM THE ECONOMISTS
ICBA Economics — B.C.’s Housing Slump Deepens as Alberta Powers Ahead — Jock Finlayson dissects the widening gulf between the two western provinces: B.C. is mired in a homebuilding downturn while Alberta continues to post strong construction and in-migration numbers. A sobering read on where B.C.’s cost structure, tax climate, and regulatory environment are pushing investment.
RBC Economics — Canada’s auto sector to show rebound amid mixed home resales — Markets now price a 96.5% probability of the BoC holding at 2.25% on April 29. RBC flags advance StatCan estimates pointing to a sharp February rebound — wholesale +2.3%, manufacturing +3.8% — and maintains the BoC stays on hold through 2026 before drifting toward the 3.25% top of neutral in 2027. Translation for contractors: financing costs aren’t moving; rate relief, not rate cuts, is the new base case.
WORTH WATCHING
Manufacturing & Wholesale Trade, February 2026 — StatCan releases Wednesday morning. Advance estimates point to a firmer rebound than January data suggested — the single best read on whether the goods sector is reaccelerating into Q2.
CMHC Housing Starts, March 2026 — Thursday, April 17 at 8:15 a.m. ET. February posted a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 238,049 units; watch whether pre-construction financing headwinds and elevated material costs pull March lower, particularly in Calgary and Metro Vancouver. CMHC Reports Calendar
LNG Canada Phase 2 FID — Shell-led LNG Canada is targeting a final investment decision by end of 2026 on doubling Kitimat terminal capacity, potentially attracting $33B in private capital. TR Canada E&C has been retained for Coastal GasLink Phase 2 FEED work. ConstructConnect
IN BRIEF
The White House — Trump strengthens steel, aluminum, copper tariffs — Articles made entirely of steel, aluminum or copper now face a flat 50% U.S. import duty (25% on derivatives). The tariff is paid by U.S. importers and squeezes Canadian exporters’ competitiveness in the American market; domestic-supply effects in Canada depend on diversion and retaliation.
The Hub — 83% of Canadians back oil export diversification — 68% support a new pipeline to the BC coast. The Ottawa-Alberta MOU points that way, but incentives still favour U.S.-bound routes. The politics are catching up to the economics.
CBC News — ATB projects Alberta GDP to rise despite oil supply crunch — Elevated prices from the Iran/Hormuz disruption support Alberta royalty revenue and producer cash flow, even as Canadian consumers absorb higher fuel costs.