TOP STORY
Gas Pumps Push CPI to 3.1%, but Core Stays Cool as the BoC Eyes Oct. 28
Canada’s inflation rate rose to 3.1% in September from 3.0% in August, and Statistics Canada is clear about the cause: gasoline, up 27.8% year over year, with Middle East war risk holding crude at its highest since May. Strip out gasoline and CPI rose 2.2%, and the Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures, trim at 1.8% and median at 1.9%, sit at or below target. That gives Governor Macklem room to wait, and BMO’s Douglas Porter says the report “does nothing to advance the case for interest rate hikes.” But contractors' transportation costs are up 8.4% from a year ago, and diesel, asphalt and freight flow straight into bid prices. Alberta’s rate eased to 3.6%, still above the national figure, and ATB Economics pins that on vehicle insurance premiums, up 22.8%. Add two straight months of job losses and new U.S. tariffs, and the Bank is boxed in on October 28 while builders absorb the cost.
THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA
Consumer Price Index, September 2026 — Released Monday. Headline CPI 3.1% (August: 3.0%), a touch below the 3.2% economists expected. Energy prices rose 19.0% year over year, shelter 1.8% and rent 2.8%, while grocery inflation slowed to 1.7%, the lowest since May 2024. CPI-trim and CPI-median both eased. Statistics Canada
FROM THE ECONOMISTS
BMO Economics — Inflation data shows high energy prices still contained, for now — Porter says the run-up “is not spreading far and wide beyond the gasoline pump,” undercutting the case for a hike.
CIBC Capital Markets — Inflation data shows high energy prices still contained, for now — Andrew Grantham argues there is “little rush,” and the Bank can wait to see how U.S. tariffs play out.
ATB Economics — Walk the line — Expects a “hawkish” hold on October 28: the Bank will tolerate energy-driven inflation but not spillover into other prices. Three-month annualized core is nearer 2.5%.
WORTH WATCHING
Building construction investment and new home prices — StatCan releases Investment in Building Construction for August on Wednesday, then the New Housing Price Index for September on Thursday. Look for BC and Alberta splits on how builders are pricing in this market. Release schedule
Bank of Canada, October 28 — Macklem has warned the Bank would raise rates if energy-driven inflation spreads. A hike into a shrinking jobs market would hit rate-sensitive builders hardest.
Building Construction Price Indexes, Q3 — Due October 29. The best read yet on what tariffs and fuel are doing to contractors’ actual costs. Release schedule
COFFEE & CONSTRUCTION
Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, ICBA’s Jordan Bateman serves up a 10-minute rundown of the news facing BC and Alberta construction on the Coffee & Construction podcast. Catch the latest episode: The People Who Approve B.C. Projects Just Changed | ICBA C&C #43. Subscribe free on YouTube (@ICBATV), ICBA’s socials, or wherever you download podcasts.