TOP STORY
ICBA Report: B.C. Has Gone From Economic Leader to Laggard
B.C.’s economy has fallen to the back of the pack, propped up by government spending while its private sector stalls, according to From Leader to Laggard, released today by ICBA Chief Economist Jock Finlayson and consulting economist Ken Peacock. The numbers are stark: government activity drove all of B.C.’s growth in 2024, with public-sector GDP up 6.6% a year over 2022–24 while the private sector managed just 1%. Since 2019, B.C. has added 1.3 government jobs for every private-sector job — against 0.6 in the rest of Canada — leaving it short some 223,000 private-sector jobs against its pre-pandemic trend. Taxpayer-supported debt is on track to triple in six years, exports have shrunk to 13.5% of GDP (half the national average), and a record $13.3-billion deficit comes with no path back to balance. “This is not a cyclical downturn,” Finlayson says. “It is a structural slowdown, and many of the challenges are home-grown.” ICBA President Chris Gardner put it plainly: the tailwinds that masked B.C.’s weaknesses “are now gone, and the structural cracks… are impossible to ignore.” The contrast with Alberta — tracking around 2.7% growth this year and swinging back toward surplus on strong oil — could hardly be sharper. Even Rob Shaw notes Premier Eby can no longer pin it all on Trump’s tariffs.
THE NUMBERS — STATISTICS CANADA
Investment in Building Construction, May 2026 — Released Monday. National investment edged down 0.3% to $23.4 billion (up 5.9% year over year). The provincial split tells the western story: B.C. led the country in multi-unit residential investment (+$52.5M) and industrial building (+$14.5M), while Alberta led all provinces in multi-unit declines (−$80.1M), softening only slightly on the commercial side (+$2.3M). Statistics Canada
FROM THE ECONOMISTS
C.D. Howe Institute — A new report by Andrew Sancton, Growing Pains: Rethinking Development Charges, takes apart the “growth pays for growth” orthodoxy and finds these charges mostly land on new-home buyers, pushing prices higher. The B.C. bite is real: development cost charges in some Metro Vancouver municipalities top $50,000 per home — a direct tax on the housing supply the province says it wants.
BuildForce Canada — Its new 2026–2035 outlooks sharpen the B.C.–Alberta divide. In B.C., residential construction employment is projected to fall 13% by 2035 as housing starts retreat, with the Lower Mainland down 15%; non-residential rises just 5%, yet the province still needs 48,200 new workers and risks a 7,400-worker shortfall. In Alberta, activity instead rises to 2035 as non-residential growth — energy, industrial, ICI — offsets moderating housing demand.
WORTH WATCHING
Metro Vancouver’s $115-Billion Bill — A new report pegs the infrastructure needed to support 570,000 new homes over 15 years at roughly $115 billion. Victoria’s $7 billion over 10 years is, in SFU’s Andy Yan’s words, “almost at most a Band-Aid.”
Aug. 19 — New U.S. Tariffs Bite Cement — Washington’s new 50% tariff on a long list of Canadian goods — cement included — takes effect next month under a revived Section 338. Energy, potash, and critical minerals are carved out, sparing Alberta’s core exports; B.C. builders paying more for cement will feel it on every slab. But Trump can always reverse course, as he has before.