TOP STORY
Banks Flip to Rate-Hike Calls as Oil Near US$110 Squeezes the BoC
Six days before the Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, the Street has turned. BMO, RBC and Desjardins switched to a hike call to 2.50% on Monday, and swaps now price roughly an 87% chance of a move after seven straight holds at 2.25%. Governor Macklem said the Bank will raise its inflation forecast, because Brent sits near US$110 against the US$75 it assumed in July. Scotiabank sees a 25 bp hike even with softer core CPI, noting that rates are negative in real terms. For contractors that is a double hit: diesel, asphalt and freight stay expensive while borrowing costs for builders, developers and buyers rise. Ottawa’s fiscal tap is still open too, which makes the Bank’s job harder and ours costlier.
FROM THE ECONOMISTS
ATB Economics — On the Rise — Businesses now expect 3.7% inflation a year out and consumers about 4%. ATB still leans to a “hawkish” hold on October 28, citing soft growth and core inflation near target — a split from the big banks.
ICBA Economics — B.C. Government Must Tackle Youth Employment Decline — Fewer young British Columbians are landing jobs just as the construction workforce ages out. A skills pipeline is a policy choice, not a given.
WORTH WATCHING
BoC Decision, October 28 — Full Monetary Policy Report and new projections. A hike plus a higher inflation path would push mortgage and construction-loan costs up into winter.
After Alberta’s Unity Vote — Albertans voted to stay in Canada on October 19, removing a layer of investor uncertainty. Now Ottawa has to deliver on pipelines and approvals, or the frustration will not fade.
IN BRIEF
BNN Bloomberg — Federal government announces billions for tariff-impacted industries in Ontario. Ottawa and Ontario unveiled about $8.7B, including $5B for steel mills — a reminder that western contractors pay the steel tariff bill with no matching aid.
COFFEE & CONSTRUCTION
Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, ICBA’s Jordan Bateman serves up a 10-minute rundown of the news facing BC and Alberta construction on the Coffee & Construction podcast. Catch the latest episode: Approval in July, Shovel in October. | ICBA Coffee & Construction #41. Subscribe free on YouTube (@ICBATV), ICBA’s socials, or wherever you download podcasts.