KEY POINTS
From Leader to Laggard: ICBA Economics’ new report shows B.C.’s slide in hard numbers – a public-sector wage bill that has doubled in seven years, near stagnant private sector activity, and provincial debt on track to triple.
WorkSafeBC’s ‘Freeze’ Isn’t Free: The 2027 base rate stays at $1.55 – but the system actually costs $1.88, the gap is filled by draining surplus, and 48% of employers will still pay more.
FROM LEADER TO LAGGARD
For most of a generation, B.C. was one of Canada’s economic leaders. Not anymore.
On Tuesday, ICBA Chief Economist Jock Finlayson and consulting economist Ken Peacock released From Leader to Laggard, an in-depth review of B.C.’s economic performance – and the numbers are stark. (See Rob Shaw’s piece in Business in Vancouver for more).
From 2022 to 2024, the government side of B.C.’s economy grew 6.6% a year. The private sector? Just 1%. B.C. is now missing roughly 223,000 private-sector jobs that should have been created, and since 2019 the province has added 1.3 government jobs for every new private-sector one – more than double the national pace.
Meanwhile, the public-sector wage bill has nearly doubled in seven years, from $26.7 billion to $53.2 billion, and provincial debt is on track to triple in six years. As Jock puts it: “This is not a cyclical downturn… The province is in the grip of a structural slowdown.”
And people are leaving. In an op-ed in Business in Vancouver, Jock and Ken pointed out that B.C.’s population is shrinking for the first time in modern history – down roughly 50,000 people over the past year.
WORKSAFE 'FREEZE' ISN'T FREE
WorkSafeBC announced its average base rate will stay at $1.55 per $100 of payroll for 2027 – a full decade without a change. Sounds like good news. The details say otherwise.
The system actually costs $1.88 to run. The gap is being covered by draining $677 million from the surplus – a savings account being emptied, not a bill being avoided. And despite the “freeze,” 48% of employers – about 132,000 firms – are getting a base-rate increase next year anyway. WorkSafe’s own forecast shows rates climbing to $1.59 in 2028 and $1.74 by 2031.
Why? Claims and operating costs have jumped 21% in two years, hitting $4.3 billion in 2025, and the average claim now lasts 77.5 days – almost 11 days longer than in 2021. Jock’s full analysis, Storing Up Trouble, warns WorkSafeBC has hit a financial tipping point. Employers fund this system. We’ll keep pushing WorkSafe to contain costs before the bill comes due.
We’re also pushing on the regulatory side: WorkSafeBC’s draft shotcrete rules promise the same engineering requirements whether concrete is poured or sprayed, but on the two most expensive requirements, the draft doesn’t deliver. Our submission makes eight recommendations to fix it.
SHOWING HOMEBUYERS THE REAL BILL
Every regulation added to a home is a cost. Somebody pays it – usually the family that buys or rents the place.
That’s why ICBA wrote to Saskatoon MP Brad Redekopp and the Conservative B.C./Alberta caucus to support his Bill C-287, the Housing Cost Transparency Act. The bill would require a plain-language summary and a real dollar cost estimate for the end buyer before any housing-related building code change, plus a public registry tracking the cumulative tab.