CALGARY – Alberta is expected to remain near the top of Canada’s growth leaderboard in 2026, with ICBA Economics forecasting 2.3% real GDP growth and unemployment easing to 6.7% – a performance many other provinces would undoubtedly welcome.
The newly released Alberta Construction Monitor, an ICBA Alberta publication that pairs analysis by ICBA Chief Economist Jock Finlayson with key economic statistics and indicators across the broad construction sector, highlights a stable year ahead for Alberta’s construction industry, supported by continued population growth, energy-sector strength, and resilient trade exposure despite U.S. tariffs and ongoing turbulence in global markets.
“Alberta’s outlook is the envy of much of the country – and that matters for builders, because economic growth drives investment and business expansion, helps employ newcomers seeking opportunity, and brings overall unemployment down,” said Mike Martens, President, ICBA Alberta. “In a year that is starting with a lot of global uncertainty, the outlook for a steady year is a big relief.”
While housing starts are forecast to cool from 55,800 in 2025 to 46,000 in 2026, ICBA Alberta notes the decline is largely a reflection of just how supercharged 2025 was – not a sign of a collapse in 2026.
“Even with a pull-back from last year’s surge, Alberta’s housing starts are still strong and well above historical averages,” Martens said. “That’s thanks to the tireless efforts of Alberta’s residential builders, and Alberta’s comparatively attractive regulatory regime. We must remain laser focused on reducing regulation and red tape, ensuring projects are approved and permitted quickly, and keeping taxes, fees and costs in check to stem the tide toward Vancouver- and Toronto-style unaffordability.”
The Monitor also shows the scale of Alberta’s construction engine: $166 billion in the major projects inventory, $71 billion under construction, and construction representing 8.2% of Alberta’s total GDP.
While 2026 is likely to be a year of overall economic stability for the Alberta economy, ICBA believes 2027-2028 will see an upsurge in construction activity as more significant industrial, commercial and infrastructure projects advance, and Alberta continues to attract more in-migrants from the rest of the country.
Martens warned that the federal government’s tariff posture and regulatory burden continue to inject cost and uncertainty into the construction supply chain. “Federal ‘reverse’ tariffs and overregulation stymie the industry and create inflationary pressure in the cost of construction across Western Canada,” Martens said. “Even with Alberta relatively insulated, higher input costs still hit contractors, project owners, and ultimately families.”
The full Construction Monitor report is available HERE.